The NFL has a name for it, "Kickoff Game". Since 2002, the NFL has had its opening game of the season on a Thursday Night to commence the start of American football. In 2004, the league implemented a scheduling tradition that the previous year's Super Bowl champion would host the Kickoff Game. For the next 8 years (from 2004 to 2011), the reigning Super Bowl champion won the Kickoff Game. However, the streak ended in 2012, when for the first time in the Kickoff Game's history the Super Bowl XLVI champion lost (Giants vs. Cowboys). Then last year, due to a scheduling conflict, the XLVII champion, Ravens, had to play on the road in Denver and lost in embarrassing fashion (49 - 22). Results are fairly consistent: Home team is 10 - 2, Past Champion 8 - 2, Past Champion at Home 8 - 1.
Flash forward to Thursday night, when the Super Bowl champion and the pre-season #1 ranked team, Seahawks, host the Packers. The Seahawks are coming off the greatest regular season in its franchise's history and topped it off with 3 straight in the playoffs, including domination over Peyton and the Broncos in the Superbowl. In 2013, the Seahawks ranked 1st in rush defense, total defense, points against, defensive red zone conversions, and take-aways. On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson ran an efficient offense that ranked 9th in yards per play and 4th in passing per play. Let’s not forget about Lynch, who pounded the football. The team averaged 137 yards rushing per game which ranked 4th in the NFL.
The Packers, on the other hand, had a setback year after an injury to Aaron Rodgers had him sidelined him 7 games. In the games Rodgers played, the Packers were 6 - 3 (losses were @ 49ers, @ Bengals, Bears). Even with Rodgers on the bench for almost half the season, the Packers were near the top of every offensive category including rushing; rookie running back Eddie Lacy established himself as one of the leagues premier rushers. Questions all lie on the defensive side of the ball for the Packers, where they were ranked near the bottom of all major statistical categories. What will help is a new, slimmer offensive line led by Julius Peppers.
The Packers, on the other hand, had a setback year after an injury to Aaron Rodgers had him sidelined him 7 games. In the games Rodgers played, the Packers were 6 - 3 (losses were @ 49ers, @ Bengals, Bears). Even with Rodgers on the bench for almost half the season, the Packers were near the top of every offensive category including rushing; rookie running back Eddie Lacy established himself as one of the leagues premier rushers. Questions all lie on the defensive side of the ball for the Packers, where they were ranked near the bottom of all major statistical categories. What will help is a new, slimmer offensive line led by Julius Peppers.
Based on our current rankings, Packers (4 , 3) Seahawks (4 , 5), the Seahawks have a 73% probability of winning at an expected margin of 7 points, which is in-line with the odds makers spread and moneyline set for the game (read NFL 2014 Season Over-Unders for more detail on how the Ranking System works). The Rank Analysis above on the left details the multiple scenarios (this box will look the same for each match-up analysis). As you can see in the Betting Analysis, there isn't a bet that yields an expected value above $5. In general I wouldn't bet anything less than $5, however, as a promise to my readers, I will always bet Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night games. Based on the analysis, the best bet is Seattle -6 -110 (Expected Value $3, Risk 3%). Risk 3% will likely be on the very low side of the wagers I take this year, but we don't love the game so it makes complete sense.
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