Sunday Picks: Week 1

9/6/2014

Get your bagels and lox ready because today is football Sunday.

Nothing gets us more excited about a football Sunday than the thought of perfect betting. Because right now, without having any of the games started, we are all perfect. Not a loss to think about, not a frustrating back door cover to bother us, just a wide open fairway and 18 holes of perfection to get our motors running.

That feeling of perfect betting is a lot like that confident feeling before your tee shot off hole one. The thought that today could be that day. 290 with a slight draw. Gap wedge to 8 feet. Birdie. The ability to make every shot great.

Wake up stupid. Reality sets in once you get up to that tee. However you hack it, duck hook, duff, two breakfast balls into some hazard, that optimism, that sense of faith, good-bye!

Welcome to the real football Sunday, where most of you losers will whine about trying your best. You'll complain about "da whitchin hour" and how you lost 3 bets in the last 5 minutes of the game. The goal of this post to make sure that shank doesn't happen, so we can go home and fuck the prom queen.

Titans @ Chiefs -3 even

The math here is very simple. The line suggests that the Titans and Chiefs are equivalent. In my mind this just can’t be true. Yes, the Chiefs won games early in 2013 against a very weak schedule, stumbled down the stretch and blew a 31-10 lead in the Wild Card game against the Colts. But they also won 11 games in 2013, didn’t turn the ball over (2nd in NFL), and they have a quarterback who doesn’t lose as a starter. In my opinion people are thinking too far ahead. They look at the Chiefs schedule which includes @DEN, NE, @SF, SEA, DEN, @ PIT and writing this team off before the season even starts. Chiefs go 9 – 7 in 2014 and this is 1 of their victories.

Teaser (6 point) Jets +0.5, Bears -1

The model likes both money lines. The 6-point teaser here makes a lot of sense. Jets and Bears have a 78% and 79% probability of covering (basically to win), respectively. Therefore, to win both the odds are 62%, which is more favorable at -110 than betting each team individually at -250 and -300.

Panthers @ Bucs -3 even

There isn't a question that the Panthers were a better team last season. The Panthers were better than most teams last season. But questions surrounding Carolina's wide receivers and the health of Cam Newton make me question whether 2014 is going to be a set back year for the Panthers. Changes also abound for the Buccaneers, who fired Greg Schiano following last season's dismal 4-12 record and brought in Lovie Smith after he was canned by Chicago despite a 10-6 campaign. Journeyman Josh McCown, who thrived as an injury replacement for Jay Cutler with the Bears last season, was signed in the offseason to take the reins at starting quarterback. The model likes the Bucs here simply because we rank them a notch above the Panthers. Had we ranked them the same, as many of you will, the bet would still be the Bucs given the +100 vig. My prediction is this is a win for the Bucs and the start of a long season in Carolina.

49ers @ Cowboys +170

I think the model got this game right. There is not question the 49ers are 1 of the league's elite teams. There also isn't a question that the Cowboys have one the league's most porous defenses, but with a money line of +170 at home, it just makes sense taking a team that can score at will. Over the course of the season we will lose a lot of underdog money lines, we are supposed to, but we will continue to bet them when we think we are getting the right odds.

Vikings @ Rams -160

Not only does the model like the money line based on rankings, STL (3, 3) at home against MIN (2, 2), but the matchup is favorable for the Rams. The Rams defense, who are stingy against the run, should be enough to stop Adrian Peterson and force Matt Cassel to beat them through the air. Cassel and the Vikings offensive line will have their hands full against a front 4 who were 2nd in the NFL in sacks last year. The Rams are talented and should beat one of the league's worst teams at home.

Saints @ Falcons +3 even

This game has the makings of a battle. And in battles we don't like anything more than the home dog. The Falcons are trying to forget about an injury ridden 2013 season and they have to do so against one of the sexist offenses in the NFL. The Saints had a great season that ended in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Seahawks. However, the Saints are notorious for their struggles on the road (though being in a dome helps), take the points and don't look back.

Patriots @ Dolphins +5

I couldn’t have rated the Patriots any better and the Dolphins any worse, yet still the model thinks the spread is just too big for the home dog. Dolphins split with the Patriots last year including a 4 point victory at home in December. Best stat from last year, the Patriots were 15th in the NFL when converting in the Red Zone and Miami’s defense was ranked 5th when trying to stop the opposing team. I like the stat and I like the home dog with too many points.