Nothing makes me more excited about football gambling than an 8,000 person survivor league. Each year I enter five to ten entries with the hope that I can turn a modest amount of money into a small fortune. And every year I find myself on the wrong side of the winner's circle, eliminated because a 70%+ favorite loses at home to a garbage team. Survivor is the best example of why even math can't outpace luck. Favorites are going to lose; and not just small favorites, big favorites as well. That's what makes survivor so frustrating is that no matter how good the math is, to win 24 to 27 consecutive games (which is what's required in ronandmike.com) you need to get flat out lucky. I don't doubt each year my path that I create has a greater chance of winning than the ultimate winner's did, but the truth of the matter is we're dealing with 1 in 8,000 shots; if you're smarter than the rest maybe 1 in 2,000 shots. The odds to win are very much stacked against math in the Survivor league, because we don't have the fortune of playing hundreds of entries over hundred of years and taking advantage of higher expected values than the rest.
What we can do is make smart decisions. The first step of making smart decisions is mapping out the entire season. I have attached my Survivor Map for Week 1.
What we can do is make smart decisions. The first step of making smart decisions is mapping out the entire season. I have attached my Survivor Map for Week 1.
| survivor_map_week_1.pdf |
The Survivor Map is definitely something you need to print out (legal sized paper) to get the full effect. Ultimately my goal is to visualize the entire season, trying to see only the games where a favorite exists. In my version of the Survivor Map, I highlight in green only teams that have a greater than 65% chance of winning during the first 8 weeks, a greater than 60% chance in weeks 9 through 13, and a greater than 57% chance in weeks 14 through 17. By doing this we take 512 possible teams and narrow it down to 135.
A couple things to notice right off the bat. As you can see in the column directly to the right of the team name is a column labeled "Opps". Opps is the amount of opportunities you have to pick a particular team. This is very important because it helps us quickly point out certain weeks where we might have to take a particular team, because no other options are available. For example, the Cardinals are a team we will likely take this year, but based on their schedule, the only opportunity to take the Cardinals in a strong favorite position will be week 6 at home against the Redskins. For now, I'm going to pencil in the Cardinals for that week because I view them as a top 24 team. However, if things change by week 6 and the Cardinals are a lot worse than expected or the Redskins are a lot better, I will have to change my approach.
Something important to keep in mind is our rankings of each team. Our rankings for each team over the course of the season will change, therefore, our Map will look a lot different from week to week.
For this weeks version of Survivor Friday's lets not over think it. It is a long season and I want to be around next week. The biggest favorites of the week based on my model are:
Vegas has the same top 5 but in a slightly different order:
For me, a degenerate with 6 entries, I will be diversifying my picks between the Jets, Steelers and Bears. I don't like the idea of taking the Eagles or Broncos because of the fact that there will be 7 and 11 opportunities, respectively, to take them in the future. I also feel pretty confident in my rankings of the teams my picks will be playing. The Jets play the Raiders (2 , 2), the Steelers play the Titans (3 , 2), and the Bears play the Bills (2 , 2). Each is playing one of the bottom teams in the NFL. Each team is playing at home as well.
A couple things to notice right off the bat. As you can see in the column directly to the right of the team name is a column labeled "Opps". Opps is the amount of opportunities you have to pick a particular team. This is very important because it helps us quickly point out certain weeks where we might have to take a particular team, because no other options are available. For example, the Cardinals are a team we will likely take this year, but based on their schedule, the only opportunity to take the Cardinals in a strong favorite position will be week 6 at home against the Redskins. For now, I'm going to pencil in the Cardinals for that week because I view them as a top 24 team. However, if things change by week 6 and the Cardinals are a lot worse than expected or the Redskins are a lot better, I will have to change my approach.
Something important to keep in mind is our rankings of each team. Our rankings for each team over the course of the season will change, therefore, our Map will look a lot different from week to week.
For this weeks version of Survivor Friday's lets not over think it. It is a long season and I want to be around next week. The biggest favorites of the week based on my model are:
- Eagles 85% (8 opps)
- Bears 82% (7 opps)
- Steelers 77% (2 opps)
- Jets 77% (3 opps)
- Broncos 76% (12 opps)
Vegas has the same top 5 but in a slightly different order:
- Eagles -530
- Broncos -340
- Bears -300
- Steelers -290
- Jets -260
For me, a degenerate with 6 entries, I will be diversifying my picks between the Jets, Steelers and Bears. I don't like the idea of taking the Eagles or Broncos because of the fact that there will be 7 and 11 opportunities, respectively, to take them in the future. I also feel pretty confident in my rankings of the teams my picks will be playing. The Jets play the Raiders (2 , 2), the Steelers play the Titans (3 , 2), and the Bears play the Bills (2 , 2). Each is playing one of the bottom teams in the NFL. Each team is playing at home as well.
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